
WASHINGTON, August 07, 2008
Some improvement is projected for existing-home sales in the months ahead, with broader gains seen by the fourth quarter as buyers take advantage of new provisions provided through the recently passed housing stimulus bill, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in June, rose 5.3 percent to 89.0 from a downwardly revised reading of 84.5 in May, but remains 12.3 percent below June 2007 when it stood at 101.4.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said sales have been in a pattern of rising and falling within a fairly narrow range. “The vacillation of data from one month to the next indicates a housing market in transition,” he said. “The rise in pending home sales was broad-based with all four regions showing gains. This is welcome news because a rise in contract activity is necessary for an overall housing recovery. With a tax credit now available to first-time home buyers, increases in home sales could be sustained with the momentum carrying into 2009.”
The PHSI in the West, the index rose 4.6 percent to 101.0 in June but remains 1.7 percent below a year ago.
Sales gains have been consistently strong in recent months in Sacramento, Calif.; Las Vegas; and Ft. Myers, Fla., where affordability conditions have greatly improved. The pickup in contract signings appears to be broadening with many affordable markets in mid-America now showing year-over-year gains, including Columbus, Ohio; Charleston, W.V.; Oklahoma City; and Colorado Springs, Colo.
NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said the housing stimulus package will provide long-term relief. “Provisions to stem foreclosures are helpful, but a greater lift to the economy should come from higher mortgage limits, enhancements to the FHA loan program and the first-time home buyer tax credit,” he said.
“These are excellent tools that will help buyers get into the market to take advantage of the unprecedented drop in home prices in many areas, as well as a wide selection of inventory, to make an investment in their future,” Gaylord said.
Yun said home prices did not fall as much as anticipated in the second quarter. “Buyers entering the hardest-hit markets, in some cases with multiple-bid offers, may have put a floor on prices,” he said. Home prices are projected to increase 3 to 6 percent in 2009.”
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which also has been vacillating, is likely to trend up to 6.5 percent by the end of 2008, and then hold at that level for most of next year. NAR’s housing affordability index is forecast to remain favorable this year, averaging 13 percentage points higher than in 2007.
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
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